Faltando duas rodadas apenas para o encerramento da 1ª fase da Série D do Campeonato Brasileiro, o Bahia de Feira segue na luta para se classificar para a sequência da competição. Entretanto, as chances matemáticas do Tremendão são de apenas 33,4% de acordo com site Chance de gol e as contas apontam que o time tem que vencer de qualquer forma o Vila Nova, em Nova Lima/MG, no próximo fim de semana, para seguir sonhando com a classificação e na última rodada protagonizar um confronto direto com o Tupynambás, em Feira de Santana, quando estará em jogo a quarta e última vaga do Grupo A-6 para a sequência do certame nacional.
Segundo o site Chance de gol, um dos mais badalados quando a questão gira em torno das probabilidades matemáticas, apenas uma vaga está em aberto no Grupo A-6 da Série D e neste momento é disputada por Tupynambás, Bahia de Feira e Caldense. Os resultados da última rodada delinearam bem a situação de momento: a derrota de 2 x 1 da Caldense diante do Tupynambás, deixou o time de Poços de Caldas com 15 pontos em um quadro muito delicado com apenas 0,6% de chances de classificação. Assim como os demais concorrentes, ela tem quatro triunfos com mais dois jogos pode chegar a seis vitórias, porém o que pesa é o saldo de menos 9 gols negativos. Isso significa que teria que vencer seus dois confrontos de goleada e ainda torcer por tropeços dos concorrentes.
O site aponta o Bahia de Feira com pouco mais de 33% de chances de classificação: o Tremendão tem 15 pontos, na quinta posição, e está a dois pontos de distância do Tupynambás: tem por obrigação vencer o Vila Nova fora de casa para ainda seguir com chances de classificação. Nesse caso, independente de vitória do Tupynambás diante do Palmas, na última rodada se teria uma disputa direta pela quarta vaga entre Bahia de Feira x Tupynambás e ainda sim o time mineiro jogaria pelo empate para se classificar.
Dos times que brigam por classificação o site aponta o Tupynambás com as melhores possibilidades: 66%. O Baeta enfrenta na próxima rodada o lanterna Palmas, em Juiz de Fora, que até o momento não fez um ponto sequer. A classificação pode até vir de forma antecipada, mas para isso, o Bahia de Feira não pode vencer o Vila Nova. Se acontecer esta combinação de resultados, a última rodada o time vem a Feira de Santana apenas cumprir tabela.
O Bahia de Feira volta a campo no próximo domingo (22) às 16 horas, quando enfrenta o Vila Nova, no Estádio Castor Cifuentes, em Nova Lima/MG às 16 horas. Confira a classificação atualizada e as chances de cada time no Grupo A-6
Por Cristiano Alves
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